How to check market load in cricket betting, and tell money from cricket
Market load is the Indian bettor's name for where the money is going: which side of a match, a session or a fancy line is taking the heavier bets. Checking it is easy. Reading it correctly is the part most guides skip.
Mid-match, two prices on screen
Three ways to see the load
1. Watch the price with nothing happening
The plainest sign. Between balls, with no wicket and no boundary, the back price on one team keeps shortening: 1.85, 1.82, 1.78. Nothing on the field explains it. Money does. When one side is being backed heavily, the market makes it pay less.
On a fancy line the same thing shows up in the rate before the line itself moves — the run bhav on one side slips below 100 while the figure stays put.
2. Read the matched amount
Exchange-style screens show how much has been matched on each outcome, and often how much is waiting at each price. A large matched figure on one team, or a stack of unmatched money queued at a price, is the load in plain numbers. Of the three signs, this is the one that counts rupees rather than inferring them.
3. Compare across sites
If one site offers a team at 1.70 and another at 1.60, somebody's book is heavier. The shorter price is usually where the load is. This needs two screens open and is slower than the first two, but it catches a load that one site is hiding by not moving its price.
Mid-match, two prices on screen
Money moves or cricket moves: the one test
Every price change has one of two causes. Either something happened in the match, or somebody bet.
what you see
what caused it
what it tells you
price jumps right after a wicket, a big over or a review
the match
new information about the cricket
price drifts over several balls with nothing on the field
the load
what bettors are doing
price moves before the toss after team news
the match
new information, if the news is real
price moves in the last minutes before the toss with no news
the load
what bettors are doing
The first and third rows carry cricket. The second and fourth carry opinion. A load is not a prediction; it is a record of other people's bets, and other people are wrong all the time. A flood of money does not make a favourite any likelier to win. It only makes it pay less.
Mid-match, two prices on screen
What checking the load is useful for
It is useful for price, not for picking a side.
Timing a back. If the load is building on the team you already wanted, its price is getting worse. Taking it earlier gets the longer number.
Timing a lay. The same load that shortens a back price makes a lay cheaper to hold: the liability falls as the price falls.
Spotting a khadda chance. A session line pushed up by load rather than runs can drift back. That is the kind of move a session bettor waits for, and it is never guaranteed.
Knowing when not to cash out. A cash out offer is computed from today's price. If the load has pushed that price against you without anything happening on the field, the offer is worse than the match deserves.
Mid-match, two prices on screen
Where market load misleads
Small markets move on small money. A fancy line on a lower-order batter can swing on one large bet. The load is real; it means very little.
Screens without matched figures. A site that shows only prices shows the load only through its own price moves, which it controls.
Tip channels. A message telling a crowd to back one side creates load by itself. Reading that load back as a signal is reading the message twice.
Mid-match, two prices on screen
Checking the load, step by step
I have looked at what happened on the last few balls before reading any price change.
I have checked the matched amounts if the screen shows them.
I have compared the price with at least one other source.
I am using the load to time a price, not to choose a winner.
FAQ
What is market load in cricket betting?
Where the money is going — which side of a market is taking the most bets. It shows as a price shortening without a cricket reason, or as matched money on an exchange screen.
How do I check market load in a live match?
Watch the price between balls, read the matched amounts on each side if shown, and compare the price with another site.
Does market load predict the winner?
No. It records what bettors did. It changes the price, not the match.
Why did the price move with no wicket?
Most likely load: more money on one side. A price that moves right after a wicket or a big over is moving on the match instead.